Rabobank predicts modest growth in global milk production in the coming year, except in China, where production is declining.
In its quarterly update from March 4, Rabobank forecasts that milk production in the seven largest exporting regions will grow by 0.8% this year and continue at a similar rate in the first half of 2026. However, Rabobank describes this growth as modest, as it remains below 1%.
While the seven largest exporting regions—the U.S., EU, New Zealand, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay—are experiencing growth, China stands out with a contrasting trend. After several years of significant expansion, Chinese milk production declined in 2024, marking a clear shift. A larger-than-expected drop in the fourth quarter, along with a reduced dairy herd, led RaboResearch to lower its forecast for 2025. Production is now expected to decrease by 2.6% compared to the previous year, marking the second consecutive year of decline.
As of February 2025, Chinese farmgate milk prices were 15% lower than the previous year, providing little incentive for dairy farmers to increase production in the short term. At the same time, demand is expected to rise, albeit at a slower pace, reflecting China’s economic challenges.
Chinese dairy imports are expected to grow compared to the low levels of 2024. For years, China has been a key indicator of global demand, but after a rapid expansion of domestic milk production earlier in the decade, the record import levels of 2021 now feel like a distant memory, Rabobank notes in its latest quarterly update on the global dairy market.
Read more about Rabobank’s milk production forecasts
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