Global dairy trade continues to grow, but exports are gradually shifting from Europe towards the US and South America, a new analysis from Rabobank shows.
World trade in dairy products continues to grow, but the picture of who exports the most is changing. This is according to the analysis World Dairy Map 2026 from Rabobank.
Global dairy trade grew by 11 per cent between 2017 and 2025, measured in liquid milk equivalents. The analysis describes a long-term annual growth rate of around 2 per cent, although the trend has been marked by fluctuations along the way. The clearest example came in 2022, when a decline of almost 4 per cent in New Zealand’s milk production had consequences for both trade patterns and prices globally. Growth subsequently returned to its long-term level, and in 2025 an increase of 5 per cent offset a weak 2024.
The EU remains the world’s largest exporter of dairy products, but its share of global exports is declining. In 2025, the EU – excluding intra-EU trade – accounted for 27 per cent of the world’s dairy exports, down from close to 30 per cent in 2017. New Zealand, meanwhile, is the single country that exports the most, holding a 22 per cent share of the global market.
Unlike the EU, the US is on the rise. The country’s share of global exports has grown from 11.3 to 13.5 per cent since 2017. Argentina and Uruguay combined have moved from a 3 per cent share to 4.3 per cent over the same period – a development that, according to Rabobank, reflects a market in which the EU remains the largest player, but far less dominant than before.
China buying less, new markets growing
China remains the single largest buyer of dairy products worldwide, but its imports have been declining since peaking in 2021. According to Rabobank, this is largely because China is increasingly meeting its own demand domestically – a trend that is particularly evident in liquid milk, cream and milk powder, where imports have halved over the past four years.
This is forcing exporters to seek new outlets. Rabobank points to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman, among others, where growing populations, rising incomes and continued urbanisation are driving import needs that local production cannot match. Brazil is also emerging as a growth market: Brazilian imports of dairy products rose from 1.3 to 2.3 billion kilogrammes between 2022 and 2025, driven by rising demand for cheese and milk powder in particular.
Cheese driving growth
According to Rabobank, cheese is the product category truly powering global dairy trade. Total cheese exports reached 8.96 billion kilogrammes in 2025 – 40 per cent more than in 2017 – and the analysis notes that the pace of growth has picked up further over the past year. Both the US and Argentina have doubled their cheese exports since 2017, with the US overtaking most competitors to become the world’s second-largest exporter, behind only the EU and UK combined.
Butter exports jumped sharply in 2025, reaching 2.23 million tonnes, an increase of 9 per cent compared with 2024. The growth was largely attributable to the US, where exports nearly tripled from 45,000 to 123,000 tonnes in a single year. Whey trade has remained relatively stable in volume by comparison, but according to Rabobank has become increasingly valuable amid growing demand for protein products. Milk powder is the category showing the most subdued development.
Europe facing tighter constraints
Rabobank expects global dairy trade to continue growing at around 2 per cent a year. The US and Argentina are highlighted as the countries best positioned to increase milk production going forward, supported in part by high beef prices and substantial investment in cheese production. Europe, by contrast, faces a number of constraints, including regulation, an ageing farming population and limited scope for further productivity gains. Overall, the analysis points to Europe’s role in global dairy trade remaining important, but more constrained than before.
By Maja Løvstrup
Photo: Colourbox
