A milk oversupply has sent the Russian milk price down 23 per cent in a year, whilst the number of new dairy businesses in the country has fallen 45 per cent.

Investor interest in the Russian dairy sector has declined significantly. From January to May 2026, 109 new milk and dairy companies were registered in Russia, 45 per cent fewer than in the same period the year before, according to figures from the Russian business register Rusprofile, Danish agricultural trade media “Effektivt Landbrug” reports.

Stocks are piling up
The underlying cause is an oversupply of milk, which has pushed the producer price of raw milk down 23 per cent in April compared with the year before, while production costs over the same period have risen by 6-16 per cent. According to Effektivt Landbrug, production has grown faster than demand since autumn 2025, causing stocks to build up. At the start of May, Russian cheese stocks stood 17 per cent above the year-earlier level, whilst butter stocks were 23 per cent larger despite lower production.

More expensive financing hits the industry
The industry also points to reduced state support and more expensive financing as contributing factors behind the slowdown. Interest rates on subsidised loans have risen from a previous 2-3 per cent to 6.3-9.1 per cent, Effektivt Landbrug reports. Even large producers such as Ekoniva have consequently put projects on hold.

Despite the difficult situation on the domestic market, Russian exports are expected to rise 8 per cent to around 1.1 million tonnes in milk equivalents in 2026.

By Maja Løvstrup
Source: Effektivt Landbrug
Photo: Unsplash / Anitan Jankovic